Climatology Baseline Model Results

Here are the latest results after running the baseline climatology model on the ssp245 test scenario.

Kaggle Score

Metric	Score
nNSE (↑)	-0.564821

Quantitative Results

Variable	R²
`tas` (Near-Surface Air Temperature)	0.178
`tasmax` (Daily Max Temperature)	0.189
`tasmin` (Daily Min Temperature)	0.183
`pr` (Precipitation)	-0.081
`huss` (Specific Humidity)	0.235
`psl` (Sea Level Pressure)	0.173
`sfcWind` (Surface Wind Speed)	0.108

Climate Extreme Indices Metrics:

Index	Description	Unit	RMSE	R2
FD	Frost Days	days	10.914 days	-1.31
SU	Summer Days (Tmax ≥ 25°C)	days	18.971 days	-4.113
ID	Ice Days (Tmax < 0°C)	days	13.677 days	-2.547
TR	Tropical Nights (Tmin ≥ 20°C)	days	14.959 days	-1.771
GSL	Growing Season Length	days	10.508 days	0.127
TXX	Monthly Max of Daily Tmax	°C	5.787 °C	-2.523
TNN	Monthly Min of Daily Tmin	°C	3.623 °C	0.422
WSDI	Warm Spell Duration Index	days	88.632 days	-2.73
CSDI	Cold Spell Duration Index	days	10.614 days	-96.076
RX5DAY	Max 5-day Precipitation	mm	34.462 mm	-2.139
CDD	Consecutive Dry Days	days	197.028 days	-855.698
CWD	Consecutive Wet Days	days	86.032 days	-613.164
R95P	Total Precip above 95th pct	mm	0.004 mm	-9.782
SDII	Simple Daily Intensity Index	mm day⁻¹	4.411 mm day⁻¹	-61.883
R10MM	Days with Precip ≥10mm	days	22.489 days	-11.705

Visual Results

The visualizations for spatial maps and time series comparisons are generated within the playground.ipynb notebook. Below are all visuals from climatology_visuals/.

Spatial Comparison Maps

result_map_huss_2015-02-20.png	result_map_pr_2015-02-20.png

result_map_psl_2015-02-20.png	result_map_sfcWind_2015-02-20.png

result_map_tas_2015-02-20.png	result_map_tasmax_2015-02-20.png

result_map_tasmin_2015-02-20.png

Time Series Comparisons

result_timeseries_huss_40.0_-95.0.png	result_timeseries_pr_40.0_-95.0.png

result_timeseries_psl_40.0_-95.0.png	result_timeseries_sfcWind_40.0_-95.0.png

result_timeseries_tas_40.0_-95.0.png	result_timeseries_tasmax_40.0_-95.0.png

result_timeseries_tasmin_40.0_-95.0.png

Scatter Plots

result_scatter_huss_2015-02-20.png	result_scatter_pr_2015-02-20.png

result_scatter_psl_2015-02-20.png	result_scatter_sfcWind_2015-02-20.png

result_scatter_tas_2015-02-20.png	result_scatter_tasmax_2015-02-20.png

result_scatter_tasmin_2015-02-20.png

Other Visualizations

index_map_CDD_2065-01-01.png	index_map_CSDI_2065-01-01.png

index_map_CWD_2065-01-01.png	index_map_FD_2065-01-01.png

index_map_GSL_2065-01-01.png	index_map_ID_2065-01-01.png

index_map_R10mm_2065-01-01.png	index_map_R95p_2065-01-01.png

index_map_Rx5day_2019-03-01.png	index_map_SDII_2065-01-01.png

index_map_SU_2065-01-01.png	index_map_TNn_2019-03-01.png

index_map_TR_2065-01-01.png	index_map_TXx_2019-03-01.png

index_map_WSDI_2065-01-01.png	index_timeseries_CDD_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_CSDI_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_CWD_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_FD_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_GSL_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_ID_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_R10mm_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_R95p_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_Rx5day_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_SDII_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_SU_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_TNn_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_TR_40.0_-95.0.png

index_timeseries_TXx_40.0_-95.0.png	index_timeseries_WSDI_40.0_-95.0.png